Flawed Prophets


Humans love making predictions: We bet on the outcomes of sporting events; we try to pick optimal career paths; we forecast stock prices; we do it all the time! Why are we so fascinated by the future? Why have we created for ourselves a society where predictive abilities are needed for everyday functioning? More importantly, if we must be prophets, how do we at least become better ones, devoid of biases and fatal cognitive flaws that hold us back from clearly seeing ahead? To see our future, we must first take a look at our past.


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